If you’re aiming for an Abbott World Marathon Major qualifying time this spring season, there’s one crucial factor you might want to consider: how fast other runners around your age are going. While races like Boston, New York and London have clear qualification standards, recent history has shown that simply hitting the mark often isn’t enough. With evidence from the 2025 Boston and New York City marathons, the times needed for qualification are significantly more demanding. So, how much extra time will you need to secure a spot in a 2026 major?
Setting your sights well below the posted standard—by five to 10 minutes heading into the build—could be the safest approach. For instance, runners who qualified for the 2025 Boston Marathon needed to be nearly seven minutes faster than their official qualifying standard. New York’s qualifying threshold for 2025 was even more extreme, asking runners to beat their age-group standard by more than 13 minutes just to get a spot on the Staten Island start.
Entry into the London Marathon will be equally difficult. Even though the race has qualifying times, organizers directly encouraged those who hit the times for 2025 to also apply to the general ballot if their qualifying time was less than 10 minutes faster than their age-group standard.
With qualifying times only getting harder, taking a bold race approach might be necessary for runners shooting for the bubble. Running the race or training slightly faster than you intended could create a cushion rather than disappointment six months after you cross the finish line of your qualifying race. Although this strategy is risky, it could be worth “leaving it all out there” if you consider yourself close.
You can control your race-day performance, but you can’t control how competitive the application field will be. Over the years, cut-off times have become increasingly difficult to predict, but one American runner has created a tracker, analyzing North American marathon results to estimate the projected 2026 Boston Marathon cut-off. While not an exact science, the tool provides valuable insight for those hovering near the standard. According to his data, 30 per cent of accepted applicants for the 2025 Boston race were within five minutes of the 6:51 cut-off time. This illustrates just how tight these race margins can be.
While there’s an old saying that if you want to qualify for Boston, you don’t have to get faster, just older, the reality is that runners across all age groups are getting faster every year. So, should you bank time in your spring marathon? Of course: training and racing with an extra buffer in the back of your mind could be the key to making it to your goal race.
