For nearly 70 years, the sub-four-minute mile has remained an exclusive club—one that no woman has yet entered. But a recent study published in Royal Society Open Science suggests that could soon change. As reported in The New York Times, researchers believe that, with strategic drafting and under ideal race conditions, Faith Kipyegon (the current women’s mile world record holder, at 4:07.64), could break the four-minute barrier.
Why breaking four matters
Roger Bannister’s historic 3:59.4 in 1954 shattered the belief that a human mile under four minutes was impossible. Since then, thousands of men have done it, including high school athletes. But for women, the milestone has remained elusive—until now. Scientists argue that the right pacing strategy could shave the necessary seconds off Kipyegon’s time, bringing her to a projected 3:59.37.
The key factor? Aerodynamics. The study suggests that if Kipyegon ran with strategically placed pacers—one in front, one behind for the first half of the race, and fresh pacers for the second half—she could reduce wind resistance enough to cross the four-minute threshold.
Pacing project inspiration
The INEOS 1:59 project, which saw Eliud Kipchoge break the two-hour marathon barrier, serves as a groundbreaking reference point for strategic pacing in long-distance running. With a carefully crafted pacing strategy, high-performance technology and a controlled environment, the project demonstrated how science and innovation could push the limits of human endurance.
While the study suggests that Kipyegon’s best chance for breaking the four-minute would involve pacers, it also proposed that Kipyegon could achieve a sub-four-minute mile without swapping pacers, provided they are among the world’s top female middle-distance runners. If successful, this method would count as an official world record.
Skepticism and possibility
Not everyone is convinced. Some argue that, without further advances in footwear or track surfaces, a sub-four mile for women is still out of reach. Ray Flynn, a former elite miler, now meet director and athlete agent, pointed out that Kipyegon would need to drop roughly two seconds per lap—an enormous ask at that level.
Still, history suggests barriers are made to be broken. From the days when women weren’t even allowed to run long distances, to modern feats like the first sub-two-hour marathon, the limits of human performance keep evolving. If or when Kipyegon—or another top middle-distance runner—breaks four, it will reshape what is possible in the sport.
What does Kipyegon think?
Kipyegon called the study “interesting” in a statement she made from Kenya. “I appreciate people taking my world record performance as an inspiration to imagine what could be possible in the future,” she said.
