Have you ever been pleasantly surprised (or dismayed) by what time your watch thinks you’ll clock at your next race? Smartwatches claim to predict race performance, but how well do they really deliver? A recent study tested the Huawei Watch GT Runner, comparing predicted and actual finish times across 5K, 10K and half-marathon distances. The results were impressive, but with some caveats.
The study: how they tested accuracy
The study, published in Frontiers in Sports and Active Living, tracked 154 amateur runners over six weeks. Researchers gathered data by having participants complete structured training runs while wearing the smartwatch. The device’s predicted race times were then compared to actual performances across 288 test instances.
The findings showed a high correlation between the smartwatch’s predictions and real-world results, with less than a three per cent margin of error. The strongest accuracy was seen in the 10K distance, while predictions for the half-marathon tended to be slightly less precise.
What this means for runners
For amateur runners, smartwatches can offer a convenient way to gauge fitness and race readiness. While not perfect, an accuracy rate exceeding 97 per cent means these devices can be a useful tool for setting race goals and planning training. Just keep in mind that your watch is only as smart as your training. If your recent runs have been all over the place, don’t expect a spot-on prediction.
The catch: not for everyone
The study only considered watch brand, and only looked at amateur runners, not elites. Additionally, GPS and heart rate tracking are solid, but your watch doesn’t know if you’re battling a headwind, tackling hills or just having an off day. A good coach (or your own race-day instincts) might still have the edge.
Takeaway for runners
Smartwatches are improving at predicting race times, but they’re not perfect. Treat them as a helpful guide, not the final word; consistent training and race-day conditions still matter more than an algorithm. That said, if you want a solid estimate of your potential pace, your watch isn’t a bad place to start.
